Ford's been all over the place recently. They just reported earnings and beat expectations by a mile, thanks to a $1.3 billion tariff refund from the Supreme Court striking down some Trump levies. Stock popped initially, then turned lower.
But here's the real story. The F-150, their golden goose, is in trouble. A supplier's plant caught fire twice last year, and aluminum supplies are still a mess. F-150 inventory dropped nearly 40% in April, and production is estimated to have fallen 12%. On top of that, Ford faces $1 billion in net tariff costs this year, with commodity prices spiking because of the Middle East war.
So they raised their outlook by $500 million, but not by the full refund amount. That tells me something's not right. Great quarter on paper, but the supply chain is creaking and costs are climbing. I don't know how to feel about prospects.