Betting on UnitedHealth compared to other healthcare names has actually paid off the past month - up almost 8% while others sank. The government's final Medicare rate notice came in better than feared, so that helped. But earnings are coming April 21, and that's where it gets real.
The longer-term worry is Medicare Advantage reform. The government is working to rein in aggressive coding practices that UnitedHealth has famously used, and that structural change could hit hard over time. Rising medical costs and softer guidance have kept the stock down for the year despite the recent bounce. So I'm just sitting here waiting on Tuesday. If they beat, maybe this rally keeps going. If not, that recent low might look familiar again.