Thread regarding Microsoft (MSFT)

Overvalued

While I understand the excitement here, the valuations are not adding up. Take the rosiest "long-term" scenario is $1tn of additional value to MSFT.

That sounds impressive, but the $2.8tn company already has a P/E of 36 (!). Even for higher growth companies that is easily 50% over-valued, meaning it already has over $900bn of additional valued baked in. The risk of downside seems greater than risk of continued upside, given they have to fire on all cylinders consistently. That all said, the potential for AI is pretty spectacular.

Obviously there are risks with the tech, but the idea that everyone can be a lot smarter and productive in both their work and day to day, if not especially when it comes to health or legal matters (at much lower costs) is exciting.

We may just need to change the tax code more since my guess is there will be a greater widening of the most well off vs the less well off among us.

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